How many years of lithium is left
How Much Lithium Is Left In The World, Will We Run Out, & What Happens If We Do?
In this guide, we discuss the worlds lithium resources and reserves.
We outline how much we might have left, if we might run out and when, what might happen if we do, and more.
Summary The Worlds Lithium Resources
Uses For Lithium Across Society, & Why Its Important
The leading use for lithium across society is in lithium batteries electric vehicles and a range of electronics/tech. products and devices use them
Weve listed the other uses for lithium in the guide below
How Much Lithium Is Left In The World Resources, & Reserves
Lithium resources have increased with exploration, and are higher than total reserves at this point in time
Which Country Has The Largest Lithium Reserves?
Chile currently has the largest lithium reserves
Lithium Production
Lithium production has been around 82,500 to 100,000 tons over the last few years
Trends from the last decade, and projections for the next decade all have lithium production trending up/increasing
Some projections indicate that in future years, lithium production may reach over 1 million tons a year
Which Country Produces The Most Lithium?
Australia currently produces the most lithium
However, different types of lithium can be produced, and different countries may produce more of certain types of lithium than others
Lithium Demand & Consumption
The same trend applies here as to production lithium demand projects to be trending up year on year
Lithium Shortages
Some reports indicate that recently theres been an oversupply of lithium
However, other reports indicate that supply is starting to diverge from demand, and in the mid term future, lithium shortages could arise if certain market conditions arise (which we outline in the guide below)
Are We Running Out Of Lithium Now, & Will We Run Out In The Future?
It doesnt appear likely we run out in the short term.
However, lithium reserves may start to deplete at a faster rate, depending on factors like future demand (especially in electric vehicles and batteries), and how we manage lithium as a resource going forward.
How Many Years Worth Of Lithium Do We Have Left?
Different estimates range anywhere from roughly 20 years, up to over 200 years.
These estimates are very rough in nature though, and theres not really a definitive answer to this question.
It depends on different variables.
What Happens If We Run Out Of Lithium?
As any resources starts to be depleted, factors like availability of that resource, as well as price and affordability can be impacted
Is Lithium A Renewable Resource?
Technically it isnt.
There is a number of things that might be done to manage lithium resources in a more sustainable way though.
Managing Lithium Resources More Sustainably
In the guide below, we discuss different ways lithium might be managed more sustainably across society
In particular, we discuss secondary uses for used batteries containing lithium, recycling lithium, and substituting lithium with other minerals, metals and materials
What Lithium Is Used For Across Society, & Why Lithium Is Important
At this point in time, one the leading uses of lithium is in lithium-ion batteries across a range of applications
In particular rechargeable lithium batteries are used for electric vehicles and various electronic and tech. devices and products
A significant share of future demand for lithium is forecast to be driven by the penetration of electric vehicles into the transport industry, according to various reports
The second largest global end use market for lithium is is ceramics and glass
usgs.gov indicates that Although lithium markets vary by location, [the two largest] global end-use markets are estimated as batteries, 74%; [and] ceramics and glass, 14%
According to the end use markets provided by usgs.gov, the remaining end uses for lithium are:
Lubricating greases
Continuous casting mold flux powders
Polymer production
Air treatment
And other uses
[Lithium is used in electric car batteries alongside Graphite, Manganese, Nickel, Cobalt] (forbes.com)
[In 2018, 56 percent of raw lithium material was used in batteries] (volkswagenag.com)
How Much Lithium Is Left In The World? Resources, & Reserves
Lithium resources have increased with exploration, and are higher than total reserves at this point in time
Resources
Owing to continuing exploration, identified lithium resources have increased substantially worldwide and total about 89 million tons (usgs.gov)
Reserves
[The 2022 USGS Mineral Commodities Summary Report indicates that the latest world lithium reserves are 22,000,000 metric tons] (usgs.gov)
The total global reserves are estimated at 14 million tons. This corresponds to 165 times the production volume in 2018 (volkswagenag.com)
Countries With The Largest Lithium Reserves
Chile has the largest lithium reserves, with Australia the second largest
From usgs.gov:
[The countries with the largest lithium reserves are Chile at 9,200,000 metric tons, Australia at 5,700,000, Argentina at 2,200,000, and China at 1,500,00]
statista.com has the same numbers as usgs.gov, and indicates these numbers are from 2021.
Total Lithium Production, & Production Trends Over Time
Lithium production can vary depending on the year
Production appears to be trending up (increasing), and, some forecasts have production increasing significantly in the next few decades
Total Production
[The 2022 USGS Mineral Commodities Summary Report indicates that excluding US production] worldwide lithium production in 2021 increased by 21% to approximately 100,000 tons from 82,500 tons in 2020
[Its worth noting though that these numbers exclude the US because of the limited number of producers, and data was withheld to avoid disclosing company proprietary data]
In 2018, there was 85,000 tons of lithium production worldwide (volkswagenag.com)
Past Production Trends
[From 2008 to 2018, theres been a 335 percent increase in lithium production] (volkswagenag.com)
Future Production Forecasts
Production of [lithium] is set to almost triple by 2025 to more than 1.5 million metric tons (spglobal.com)
Countries That Produce The Most Lithium
Australia is the largest producer of lithium of all countries, followed by Chile
From wikipedia.org:
The countries that produced the most lithium in 2021, in terms of tonnes of min production, were:
Australia 55,000
Chile 26,000
China 14,000
Argentina 6,200
Lithium is mainly sourced from either spodumene or brine. Australia is home to the majority of hard rock (spodumene) mines, while brine production is concentrated in South America, mainly in Chile and Argentina (spglobal.com)
Lithium Demand & Consumption
Demand for lithium can vary from year to year
Demand for lithium appears to be trending up
Current Demand
Global consumption of lithium in 2021 was estimated to be 93,000 tons, a 33% increase from 70,000 tons in 2020 (usgs.gov)
[In 2020] lithium demand was about 320,000 tonnes (forbes.com)
Future Demand
[ various reports indicate that ] growth in EVs could see lithium demand increase by over 40 times by 2030. [In 2020] lithium demand was about 320,000 tonnes and is expected to hit 1 million by 2025 and 3 million by 2030, according to Reuters (forbes.com)
Lithium Shortages Have They Happened, & What Are The Reasons For Them?
Recently, theres been an oversupply of lithium for various reasons.
In the future, there may be a possibility of shortages if demand significantly increases and investment in the lithium supply chain isnt at an adequate level to meet demand.
An inability to scale up lithium production quickly may also come into play, as well as the ability to convert mined/extracted lithium material into refined/usable lithium (this is called downstream lithium conversion).
(We talk more about the projections for lithium supply and demand in the next section)
Past Periods Of Oversupply
From spglobal.com:
Lithium prices plummeted in 2019, as the market tipped into oversupply and EV growth slowed [which was partially due to subsidy cuts for EVs in China]
[Other factors that played a role were] New mines and increased production [as well as inefficient] downstream conversion capacity [of raw material into lithium chemicals] in China
[Currently, theres still a] present oversupply
Forecasts For Future Shortages
From forbes.com:
Lithium shortages will get worse [in 2022] and may continue into the middle of the decade.
It is important to remember that building a lithium mine takes seven years and much like chip fabrication plants, there isnt a lot of room for just increasing capacity [for production]
[Although] lithium production [is set to increase] to meet demand Experts say there are bottlenecks in the conversion processes needed to produce usable lithium. Plants take years to reach full production and this, combined with accelerating demand, means supplies will remain tight and prices high
Are We Running Out Of Lithium, & Will We Run Out Of Lithium?
It doesnt appear that we will run out of lithium in the short term based on the data available.
However, there may be potential for lithium shortages or supply deficits in the mid to long term, depending on demand from products like electric vehicles and other sustainable technology that uses lithium.
Level of investment in the lithium supply chain might also play a key role too, according to various reports.
Weve discussed some factors that might impact future supplies of lithium in this guide about the future supply of oil (some factors are applicable to all mined resources and energy sources)
Weve also discussed in a separate guide why we might never run out of some mined resources.
Supply & Demand Right Now
Some reports indicate that theres an oversupply of lithium right now
Other reports indicate that supply and demand are currently diverging in the direction of demand outstripping supply:
The rising price of lithium demonstrates what many in the industry have warned about for some time: the growing divergence between supply and demand for lithium (forbes.com)
From forbes.com:
Carbon-free power and gasoline-free transportation cannot exist without mining an absurd amount of lithium.
Right now, production is not even close to keeping up. We simply arent pulling enough lithium out of the ground to match the projected demand
Forecasts For Supply & Demand In The Future
From spglobal.com:
Production by 2025 [is projected to triple, due to] New mines and brine lakes, coupled with expanded output from several existing projects. [But] there are concerns that a fall in upstream investment could flip the market into undersupply further out
caution among investors suggests potential for a tighter supply picture in the later part of the next decade
lithium demand [might] increase 10-fold over the next decade [if EV penetration increases]
When Will We Run Out Of Lithium? How Many Years Worth Of Lithium Do We Have Left?
At this point in time, its not possible to give an accurate answer on when we might run out of lithium, or how many years worth of lithium we might have left.
Only rough estimates can be made.
As one example of an estimate, total reserves of 22,000,000 metric tons might be divided by an annual consumption total of 93,000 tons, equalling 236.5 years worth of reserves left.
If we go by volkswagenag.coms reserve volume of 14 million tons instead, and divide it by production volume in 2018, they indicate reserves are 165x what production volume is so, there might be 165 years worth of reserves left in this instance.
These of course are not definitive forecasts though.
One report has a much shorter projection for how much lithium might be left. motorbiscuit.com indicates:
PV Magazine states [we could run out of lithium ] as soon as 2040, assuming electric cars demand 20 million tons of lithium by then. Or it could be closer to 2100, giving us 100 years
What Happens If We Run Out Of Lithium?
Running out of any resource may impact things such as:
The availability of that resource for the key things we use it for across society.
Specifically for lithium, the use of lithium in lithium batteries (for electric vehicles and electronics and tech products in particular) might be affected significantly
The price of that resource as it becomes more scarce, and consequently, the affordability of the things we use that resource for
The price of resources increasing as reserves are depleted is something we mentioned in our guide about why we may not run out of mined resources anytime soon.
Is Lithium A Renewable Resource?
No, its not.
Lithium is finite, and it takes far longer to form in nature than the rate it is consumed at across society.
Having said that, there might be ways to manage the lithium weve already extracted more sustainably, so that lithiums non renewable status becomes less of an issue in some ways.
Managing Lithium Resources More Sustainably
There might be a range of ways to manage lithium more sustainably, including but not limited to:
Reducing consumption and demand for lithium
Re-using lithium
Recycling lithium
Substituting lithium where possible
These options and others might place less of a burden on extracting new lithium in the future.
Re-Using Lithium
In some instances, batteries that use lithium are being given a secondary use (after their primary use comes to an end) and repurposed as stationary energy storage systems
The materials used in the battery may then be recycled afterwards
Recycling Lithium
Its possible to recycle lithium, however, there can be various challenges in doing so, such as cost, and technological limitations.
Theres issues specific to metal recycling, and also e-waste recycling (which contains various metals) to consider.
Currently, various reports indicate that the recycling rate for lithium-ion batteries is low.
It might be fair to say that this is something that can be researched further, and improved.
Recycling Of Lithium In The Present
The recycling rate of lithium-ion batteries is still low at under 5% [and] The main reasons for this are cost and the complexity of recycling methods (azom.com)
usgs.gov indicates that one company in Canada has been recycling lithium metal and lithium-ion batteries since the 1990s. Theres also 25 companies in the US and Europe currently recycling lithium-ion batteries, or planning to do so.
Recycling Of Lithium In The Future
From volkswagenag.com:
In the long term, a large proportion of the raw materials used [in Volkswagen Groups pure electric vehicles] will be recycled this would reduce the need for new lithium.
However, this is unlikely to make itself felt until 2030, when used batteries will be returned in large quantities
Substitutes For Lithium Across Different Applications
The 2022 USGS Mineral Commodities Summary Report indicates that its possible to substitute lithium compounds in a range of applications (they list these applications in their report)
Its worth considering though, as we identified in our guide about how much cobalt might be left in the world, substituting some minerals/metals can come with cost and performance tradeoffs
Sources
1. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries (accessing the USGS Mineral Commodities Summary Report)
2. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-these-six-metals-are-key-to-a-low-carbon-future
3. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf
4. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about-the-contentious-issue.html#
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production
6. https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/
7. https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/lithium-supply-is-set-to-triple-by-2025-will-it-be-enough
8. https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/11/14/lithium-shortage-may-stall-electric-car-revolution-and-embed-chinas-lead-report/?sh=3c09dd6246ef
9. https://www.azom.com/news.aspx?newsID=57992
10. https://www.motorbiscuit.com/will-lithium-run-out/
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